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Monday, June 30, 2014

GDP = Best Economic Indicator? What could be? Lessons from Civilization Game

GDP: Total goods and services produced by a country in a period of time. 


I'm starting to think GDP is something like the #production output per city as represented by shields in the turn-based strategy game #Civilization


"Gross Domestic Product or GDP is the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. When an economy is healthy, you will see:

High GDP growth

Low unemployment

Wage increases 

As businesses demand the labor to meet the growing economy."




Well we certainly have high inflation and high unemployment and underemployment, low foreign direct investment.

Where then does this increase in productivity comes from?


Economists like Manuel Lopez says, our high GDP growth was due to:

Increased private consumption

Election spending

Low interest rates

Falling commodity prices, things that are not permanent.



Watch the entire report here by Melissa Gecolea On The Money:

https://anc.yahoo.com/video/does-gdp-truly-reflect-standard-104446208.html


Apparently, the Civilization game concept of shield is based on production capacity,

But GDP does not only focus on capacity, but how much goods and services were produced, as affected by DEMAND, and not necessarily reflecting an increase in productive capacity.


I think a good scale would be something that would measure, not only the output i.e. how much goods and services that were produced in a certain period of time but rather, the production capacity over a period of time.


And this measure of productive capacity is what will sustain GDP, as stated in the video as "sustainable GDP" as brought about by:

Increased MANUFACTURING

Increased SERVICES provision

Increased infrastructure spending to efficiently deliver goods and services.




Thus the growth of the economy boils down to not to GDP, or and definitely not wholly, but in part by infrastructure, but the bottom line is increasing our productive capacity and the DEMAND for this capacity, as in manufacturing, and provision of services and the Filipino people buying these goods and services.


And nothing increases productive capacity but successful LOCAL BUSINESS ENTERPRISES that people will buy and CAN buy, so wages must also increase.



I am now looking for the best economic indicator that indicates the bottom line mentioned above, or the productive capacity.

And I think it is the one of the most watched indicators in the US, since the "Great Recession" of 2008, and that is the

JOBS DATA REPORT. Have jobs incereased or decreased in the past year? I think that constitutes whether the POPULACE, and the nation as a whole is getting MORE PRODUCTIVE, or less. Are there new businesses? Are established businesses expanding to meet increased demand from foreign or local markets? After all, people, who are productive, are also the ones who spend and buy goods and services, and it is the regular, productive citizen who drives the economy and virtous cycle of money.



JOBS DATA REPORT and GDP in good part, offers the best measure of a nation's productivity.

Indeed, it is the people who have jobs who produce and also consume the country's GDP.



But the jobs report must also be related to population growth, because a healthy economy must have enough productivity to support the new members of the population. Whichever way you look at it though, an expansion in the jobs report, means an expansion or addition of new businesses, and more productive capacity or more production, and an expansion of the economy nonetheless.



Our goal to help the economy and the Filipino people: increase jobs. Increasing jobs will increase productivity. But we must also do so profitably, since: 


"It is not the employer who pays the wages -- he only handles the money. It is the product that pays wages." -Henry Ford


Unemployment rates do not show whether there are an increase in jobs or not, but rather it is indirect, and shows only a portion of the population who is employed. Although a boom in business expansion and new jobs will reduce unemployment rates, unemployment rates do not QUANTIFY the number of jobs created and the productive capacity or production of a nation.


The goal is to create jobs, that make members of the population productive, and make products that the average Filipino person will like to buy, making the nation more productive and expanding the economy. Jobs. Create. Jobs.


Such a central view of business, gives investment its entirely basic role, and that is for expansion of business, provide capital funds to initiate new jobs, and make more goods and services.


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