Business & Finance - Top Blogs Philippines

Monday, September 14, 2015

San Miguel Corporation Valuation Updates

[Latest 5 year chart of SMC, courtesy of Bloomberg Markets App]

San Miguel Corporation is a Philippine conglomerate with interests in Food and Beverage, Packaging, Real Estate, Energy, Fuel and Oil, Telecommunications, Banking, Infrastructure and others.

I am most excited in SMC's infrastructure holdings. The Philippines, in particular, Metro Manila, is currently experiencing a logistical crisis, ranked as having the 5th worst traffic jams in the world. The Japan International Cooperation Agency estimated that Metro Manila's traffic jams cost $57 million dollars a day.

Currently, several huge highway projects are under construction. One being the NAIA Expressway that will connect the Ninoy Aquino International Airport terminals 1-3 to the existing South Luzon Expressway, the metropolis' main southern artery and the City of Dreams Manila, a huge parcel of reclaimed land west of the metropolis currently being developed as a regional casino hub. Included in the project are various flyovers that will ease traffic on critical intersections that have been traffic bottlenecks for a very long time.

And to me, one of the game changer infrastructure projects, the Metro Manila Skyway. This project, will unite, for the first time, the North (NLEX) and South (SLEX) main expressways of the metropolis, greatly easing traffic flow.

SMC controls the South Luzon Expressway (SLEX), the only expressway south of the metropolis, and one of the longer highways in the country. It has recently been extended by the STAR Tollway also operated by SMC.

On March 5, 2015, SMC increased its share of profits from the SLEX. The following were taken from SMC's 2014 Annual Report:

"As of December 31, 2014, SMHC had a 46.53% stake in Atlantic Aurum Investments
B.V. (AAIBV), a company which has the following shareholdings: (i) 80% stake in South Luzon
Tollway Corporation, which holds a 30-year concession rights to operate the 36 kilometer SLEX,
one of the three major expressways that link Metro Manila to key southern provinces and (ii)
87.84% beneficial ownership in CMMTC.."

"With the purchase of additional 44% equity interest and the exercise of option for the
4.47% equity interest, SMHC has a 95% ownership interest in AAIBV as of March 5, 2015. As
such, AAIBV became a subsidiary and is controlled by SMHC effective March 5, 2015."

See also this article:
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/107767/san-miguel-consolidates-toll-ways-business



Review of Some Financial Ratios, based on 2014 Annual Report

Outstanding Shares of SMC Stock (taken from the 2014 Annual Report)
Common: 2,378,145,134 (69.03%)
Preferred Series 2-A: 721,012,400
Preferred Series 2-B: 90,428,200
Preferred Series 2-C: 255,559,400
Total: 3,445,145,134


2014 P/E Ratio: 13

2014 Book Value Per Share: P101.11 source: COLFinancial

2014 equity less non-controlling interests: P240,462,000,000
Preferred Series 2 issued 2012: P79,238,000,000 (source p.76, 2014 annual report)
Preferred Series 2 issued July 2015: P33,500,250,000 (source, http://www.philstar.com/business/2015/07/17/1477710/smc-taps-9-banks-handle-p33.5-b-preferred-share-sale)

2014 equity less controlling interests and preferred shares: P127,723,750,000
divided by outstanding common shares (2,378,145,134)

**Pilifinance Estimated 2014 SMC Common Shares book value per share: P53.71


Latest Dividend Rate: "Cash dividends declared by the Board of Directors of the Parent Company amounted to P1.40 per share both in 2014 and 2013."

At latest price of P46.95 on September 14, 2015, Dividend Rate is at 2.98%

Debt to Equity Ratio: 2.12

Total Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent)
Equity + Non-controlling Interests

Meaning, SMC's total assets are 2.12 times financed by leverage than by equity, but its total assets still exceed leverage/loans..





Friday, September 11, 2015

Income Opportunity: Pilifinance Reviews FarmOn

[Pilifinance Update on September 7, 2016:
Upon further investigation of the matter, Pilifinance found out that the owners of FarmOn have heeded the advisory of the SEC and sought to collaborate with the agency and get incorporated. That is a good sign and it shows their sincerity to get in order the legal structure of their business, and make sure that operations are legitimate. On July 18, 2016, two months after the advisory, FarmOn is officially incorporated as FarmOn Agri-Community Corporation. That is a good step forward, and it is especially reassuring that no complaints have been made (thay we know of) since it's inception.
Our stance remains the same: exercise caution in any investment dealing. Do yojr own due diligence, risk tolerance and never invest more than you are willing to lose.]

Below is a copy of their new Certificate of Incorporation:


[Pilifinance Update on September 6, 2016:
It has just come to our attention that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued an advisory dated May 17, 2016 regarding the legal status of FarmOn, confirming our suspicion and warning (as stated in this article's disclosure statement included when this article was originally written), that FarmOn is not a registered entity with the SEC. As such, FarmOn is not legally authorized to sell investments or securities to the public. The advisory also states that FarmOn does not even have a primary license which is to enable it to get authority to solicit investments. Meaning, it is not a registered corporation or as a partnership with the SEC. (See September 7 update, above)

To be fair, Pilifinance's experience in its continued transactions with FarmOn up to this day of writing, has been more than satisfactory. FarmOn has continually shown commitment in fulfilling its investment contracts as well as accountability and reliability in our transactions. We also have not heard of any customer or investor complaints with regards to FarmOn as of this date.

However, we continue to emphasize what we have originally stated in our perceived risks and disclosure, and the advice of the SEC in its advisory dated May 17, 2016:
That is to "exercise self-restraint from investing their money into such high-yield, high-risk investment scheme and to take the necessary precaution in dealing with individuals representing the above named entity."

This SEC advisory raises a red flag, and might affect the decisions of current and prospective investors, in turn affecting profitability of FarmOn. There is a risk that investors might pull-out their investments in fear of seeing this advisory, that could end up in the folding of the company. 
In light of this, Pilifinance believes that it is wise to safeguard the investor's gains and capital, as with any investment operation. If despite these warnings, the investor wishes to proceed, he does so at his own risk, and our opinion in such cases, that such an investor will do well never to gamble more than he is willing to lose.]

Below is a copy of the advisory released by the SEC on May 17, 2016:


[You may skip to the HOW TO BEGIN section at the bottom of this article]

[images taken from FarmOn Facebook page]


Always wanted to invest in a FARM?

With record low interest rates for bank Savings Accounts (less than 1% per year) and world financial markets In turmoil, how do you make your money GROW? Affordably?

In this OPPORTUNITY You don't even have to get your hands dirty!! Your farmers will do it for you!! 

Support Filipino farmers and help the local farming industry..

How do you earn?
Fund the seeds.....Split the profit with the farmer!!! That EASY!!
For as little as P100 FLAT (for one chicken) you can now invest your money and earn profits!!

As featured in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Balitanghali and State of the Nation with Jessica Soho.

How to do it?
Anytime, Anywhere! Simply deposit your investment to their BDO bank account in any BDO Branch nationwide and email them the receipt and contract!!

[DISCLAIMER: This is not a buy/sell recommendation. The Author and Pilifinance Blog is not liable for any damages of any nature upon use of the information obtained herein.The investor assumes all risk and liability to their investment. Study carefully, weigh the risks and invest only what you can afford to lose.]



========Personal Experience of Pilifinance with FarmOn==========

In 2014, with record low interest rates on savings accounts, and uncertainty in the stock markets, I was looking for a new way to invest money.

Fortunately, I stumbled upon this OPPORTUNITY while browsing investment groups in a social networking site.

I was immediately interested, because UNLIKE other "income opportunities" and scams found all over the internet, this opportunity presented a sound and reasonable business model.
In any investment, I ask myself, "HOW this business will make the money to RETURN my investment."

And their business was so simple and easy to understand that I can explain it in a few words.

Local farmers are in NEED of money or capital to buy their starting SEEDS.
WE PROVIDE them the start up money or investment to buy the seeds or animals.
The farmers care and HARVEST for the plants and animals.
Once the FARM PRODUCTS/fruits of harvest are SOLD in a ready market,
you and the farmer can SPLIT your profits!

I was EXCITED to share this to my friends and family, but we had our DOUBTS and reservations.
What if it was a scam? What if they run away with my money?

Of course, there's only one way to know for sure, that is to TRY IT!
Invest only what you're willing to lose.

On September 2014, I invested in 2 chicken heads for a measly P225, just because I was trying it out, and that was what I was willing to lose.
3 months later, on December 2014 my P225 had become P311!!! I was very happy not because of the amount, but the rate of return on investment!
In 3 months I had gained a profit of P86 or 38%!!!!
But I really had to invest 1 month in advance, and they deposited it in my bank account upon encashment 1 month later, so the entire duration my money was invested was around 5 months.

Still that was a return on investment of 7.6% PER MONTH compared to the measly 1% per year of a bank savings account!

And so in January 2015, I invested a bigger amount of P30,000 in Lettuce and Sitao crops, 8 months later, I had earned P9,000 profit on that alone! That's a whopping 30% in 8 months!

That's equivalent to a yield from a very good year in the stock market. A year, with enormous amount of risk.

Once you begin to browsing their catalogue of farm produce you can invest in, you have to split the indicated amount by two, because you will be sharing your profit with the farmer with a ratio of roughly 50/50.

In general, the return on your investment will be your original investment + around 5-8% PER MONTH, but will vary depending on what you choose.


A single investment in FARMON lasting a couple of MONTHS will usually yield you upwards 30% (based on my previous investments with them).
This is a reasonable rate of return, unlike what investment scams promise of doubling your money in a few months.


***IMPORTANT: RISKS PERCIEVED: Of course this review will not be complete without the RISKS.

1) We do not know the proprietors of FarmOn personally, but by reading their website, we can see that one of the reasons they put up FarmOn is to help poor farmers to obtain financing for their start up seeds, crops and livestock, which is a noble, and actually a mutually beneficial solution to the need of the farmers and investors. They have also been featured in Philippine Daily Inquirer, Jessica Soho, and Balitanghali but I am not sure if they are registered with the SEC (risk #5).

2) FarmOn is just a single business. There is always a risk that the business will fail, and your investment may not be returned. Faults in operations and management and even large scale natural calamities (see risk #4) can cause the enterprise to fail.

3) Being scammed or your money taken away. In my personal experience, FarmOn responds to every query and concern I had. The customer service was okay, and they deposited my investments back into my bank account without any problem. But past results may not guarantee future results. In the past, the author has heard of similar profit sharing schemes with farms where the investors have been duped and their investments gone.

4) Natural calamities, droughts and famine. Good news is that FarmOn guarantees to replace your investment of crops and livestock in case of natural calamity, a sort of insurance, for free.
However, in case of widespread natural calamity that destroys most of the farm's inventory, FarmOn may not have enough money to replace all produce and investments, and may even cause the business to fail, hence losing your investment entirely. 

5) I am not sure what kind of business permit they have. I am also not sure if they are licensed by the Securities and Exchange Commission or SEC to sell securities or investments to the public. I tried searching the keywords "FarmOn" and "Sproads" on the SEC website but did not see them.

In my case, I tried it first with a small amount, and limited my investment to a certain percantage of my investible funds. My rule is: Always invest only what you are willing to lose.




HOW TO BEGIN??
1) Read the disclaimer and investment risks sections above this portion.

[DISCLAIMER: This is not a buy/sell recommendation. The Author and Pilifinance Blog is not liable for any damages of any nature upon use of the information obtained herein.The investor assumes all risk and liability to their investment. Study carefully, weigh the risks and invest only what you can afford to lose.]

2) Read the website completely and look at what current farming cycle is open for registration. The important information here is the deadline for registration and the start of farming date.


3) Select the crops or livestock you want to invest in, and calculate the return on investment.

4) Click JOIN NOW and 

on the "Referred by:" field, kindly put 

inogomez@ymail.com

to say thanks to Pilifinance!

FarmOn website: [www.farmon.ph]

5) You may opt to not pay the notarized contract if you think this will not impact the outcome of your investment.

6) Wait for their email confirmation for a few days. 

7) Print and sign contract and invoice.

8) Deposit money investment to the FarmOn / Sproads account in any BDO Bank Branch nationwide according to instructions received in email. Keep your BANK DEPOSIT SLIP.

9) Screenshot or scan the forms and bank deposit slip and attach the image to the email and send to FarmOn. You may include an optional note regarding the details of your investment on the email.

10) Keep the signed contract, invoice and deposit slip for future reference.

11) Monitor your investment and know your harvest date. Wait for emails regarding your FarmOn investment, log in to your account in the FarmOn website and check out the FarmOn Facebook app.

12) Once the profit and investment appears on your account, fill up the online profit encashment form, and put your bank account details (Name, bank name, account opening bank branch, and bank account number, and amount to be deposited.) And wait for your investment to be deposited to your account!



Process may be subject to change without notice. For further inquiries, please contact FarmOn.

Please feel free to share, save and comment!! Let me know what you think! 








Thursday, June 11, 2015

Universities for your Staffing Needs

Here's a tip for start up businesses who need basic knowledge, expertise and staffing needs: staffing opportunities in universities!

What better place to meet your staffing needs than a university, whether vocational, technical of professional. Multiple disciplines in one place, students can apply their newly acquired knowledge into practice. You can have them part-time based on their schedule and work-load and guarantee employment after graduation!

university is not just a place you can get YOUR diploma. It's also a place where you can meet dedicated people with access to the right knowledge and technical skills for your team. It's also easier to see leadership qualities, access the right knowledge and expertise to leverage your profits!






Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Capitalization Rate and Stocks

In real estate investing, real estate investors use a certain metric called Capitalization or Cap rate. When this rate goes below a certain designated value, the real estate investor decides to sell his property. A metric that tells you when to sell, and do so profitably. How neat. And how do you wish that there was a similar metric you can use for stocks, and tell you when to sell.

Good news is, there is, and we've known it all along if you read my previous posts. Capitalization or Cap rate simply measures the net operating income of the property (excluding interest mortgage payments) in relation to the current value of the property. The Cap rate focuses on the income generation capacity (operating income) of the property itself, and excludes external factors like financing costs or mortgage interest payments.

In simple terms, cap rate is the money coming in relation to the current value of the asset, focusing only on the income generating capacity of the asset, and excluding external factors that may affect the returns of the asset.

Money coming in.. If we think about stocks, we can compare this to net income. We can also compare this to dividend rate. Net income (P/E ratio) and dividend rates are also both metrics that measure income in relation to the value or current market price of the asset. But between net income and dividend rate, the one that really comes to you as tangible returns or money is the dividend rate. Hence, because of this reason, we will choose to compare the capitalization rate to the dividend rate.

I mentioned earlier that when the capitalization rate falls below a certain value, real estate investors sell their property. This value is usually the interest rate on the mortgage of the property. The capitalization rate (income rate) is directly compared with the interest rate (expense rate). When the income rate goes below the interest rate, it means you are already losing money or negative gearing.

However, remember that the capitalization rate is a percentage which also takes into account the current market value of the property. If the net operating income on the property stays the same, but the market value of the company doubles, the effect of this on the capitalization rate percentage is to go down. Since the denominator (current market value) is doubled, and the numerator (net operating income) remains the same, the percentage or capitalization rate is halved. 

Since the capitalization rate has halved or decreased, it may have fallen below the designated value or the interest (expense) rate, and the real estate investor decides to sell. Why would he do that, even if the net operating income of the property remained the same? Well remember that even if the net operating income stayed the same as before, the cap rate still went down because the market value of the property doubled. This means that if the real estate investor sold now, he still sells at a profit, because this time, the market value has increased instead of the net operating income. He realizes his capital gains on the property.

Applying these principles to stocks, we have earlier chosen the dividend rate as the most suitable equivalent of capitalization rate in equities. Now, as the stock investor decided then, at which value should he peg the dividend rate, so when the dividend rate goes below it, he will decide to sell.

Well, since the stock investor deals directly im currency, one external factor that I can think of that can diminish the returns on your stock is the inflation rate.

Hence, you can buy stocks that have dividend rates above the inflation rate. It means that regardless of the capital gains on the stock, you are making money on dividends as you are making it over the inflation rate. You can sell when the dividend rate goes below the inflation rate. This means that the stock has decreased its profit, and therefore decreased dividend income, OR the stock has doubled in market value, or capital gains, that if you sold now, you would realize a hedty capital gains profit.

And voila, we have just made more insight into the dividend rate, and made it more valuable by comparing it to the capitalization rate. Dividend rate is one of my 3 most important metrics for gauging the value of the stock, with the other two being P/E ratio and Price to Book Value.

I have also recently added two safety values or metrics which helps gauge the stocks safety, when it comes to solvency, the current ratio and the interest rate coverage.

Remember, these are only financial ratios or metrics, and you must also use your qualitative judgement, your knowledge of the brand as a consumer and from word of mouth, your impressions of its products and services.

Century Properties Trump Tower Construction Update

Century Properties Trump Tower under construction taken from Kalayaan Avenue April 14, 2015

Original concept art: copyright to Century Properties


Closing share price as of the same day, April 14, 2015 is 95 cents a share.
With a P/E ratio of 4.92
Price to book value of 0.7165

Source: @BloombergApp for iPad



Monday, April 13, 2015

Rule of 20

There's Rule of 72 and last year I posted about how much worth of shares you need to own to be able to produce P5 million worth of cashflow.

Now there's Rule of 20! While reading Robert Kiyosaki's book, The Real Book of Real Estate, one of his advisers, accountant Tom Wheelwright introduced the concept of Rule of 20.

Rule of 20 is a simple quick trick to estimate the "amount of wealth that it will take in order to create your desired cashflow." For example if you want P500,000 cashflow a year, you need at least P10 million. That's P500k (your desired cashflow) x 20. 

That's assuming that your wealth is earning a modest 5% returns a year or per period.


Added Levels of Safety

Earlier I have created my easy framework and simple criteria for deciding the purchase of a company. I have chosen these 3 simple metrics for selecting my stocks after reading Benjamin Graham's 800 page classic, Security Analysis. Basically these 3 metrics determine if a company's shares are overpriced or underpriced by in market; thereby determining its value.

The criteria are as follows:

1) Book Value - Net worth per share relative to latest market price per share
2) Price to earnings ratio - popular and simplistic indication of market price relative to earning power
3) Dividend yield - the percentage of actual share of profits you are getting on that specific market price

These are actually financial ratios. And the minimum ratings that I set for each one are as follows:

1) Book Value per share - =<1 (P/BV less than or equal to 1)
2) Price to earnings ratio - <10 (P/E less than 10)
3) Dividend yield - anything, prefer 2-4% and above, pegged to inflation rate

A stock selling at less than 1 price to book value means, the company's stock is selling less than the total of its net worth or equity or assets less liabilities. That's the price for the tangible assets and equipment of the company. The price to earnings ratio of less than 10 means you're getting at least 10% net income of the company per annum at that price. The lower the better. A P/E of 5 means you're getting around 20% of the company's net earnings at that price. Dividend yield is actually the part of the earnings or net income you get as cash. The higher the net profit and the lower the price, the higher the dividend yield. I generally want to peg the dividend yield to the current inflation rate so at least you get at least some of your money back even though the securities are already theoretically a hedge against inflation.

And while reading Robert Kiyosaki's book, The REAL Book of Real Estate, I came upon a table that shows some common metrics and financial ratios used for real estate properties, but properties also being little business units in themselves, I believe such ratios may also be used in gauging stocks.

The table reproduced below:

I have also read about debt coverage and current ratio in Value Investor, Benjamin Graham's book Security Analysis. These two, especially current ratio are very simple to compute, and are easily available just by looking at the latest financial statemets.

The current ratio shows the ability to pay liabilities and obligations. The debt coverage specifically covers the company's capacity to pay its indebtedness.

These two additional ratios may be used as a general gauge of SAFETY when selecting and screening stocks to invest in.