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Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Fundamental and Technical Analysis?

When you look at the fundamentals of a stock, you don't need charts to tell you again where the stock is going to. The fundamentals already tell where it should be going.
You only need to know if it's cheap enough, within that 365 day or 52 week period, and the valuations you have made. You don't need to draw arrows or lines on price patterns to determine where the stock is going.

It's all about Profits!!! Dividends!!! Same thing!!


According to books by Peter Lynch and Benjamin Graham, stocks who pay higher dividends consistently trade at higher prices than stocks who don't. If the price doesn't appreciate, you're just as well paid handsomely by high dividend yields every year.

I realized, just like in the business world, it all boils down to profits, even in stocks. As stock investors, we refer to these profits as dividends.

If what Peter Lynch and Benjamin Graham wrote was correct, to be successful in stock investing, we only need to guess which stocks will pay higher dividends in the future. The capital gains and dividend yields will follow.

Generally, where the profits go, prices and dividends should follow.
When I say profits, these are long term trends in profit, of around 10 years or more; not just hickups.

Some investors take it another level, and look beyond profit trends, into the capabilities of management beyond the profits.

I once attended a seminar by BPI Trade, and one of the speakers said something along, "When you buy one of the big companies, it is like buying a mutual fund or trust fund, but the managers are Henry Sy, Lucio Tan, Zobel de Ayala..."

In the even of a major economic downturn, it is the company's management who will make the liabilities into assets and losses into profits, foundering enterprises into turn-arounds.

A famous stock market commentator in a business paper says that prices of stocks are affected by the tides of capital, supply and demand, which is absolutely true. 

But what affects a company's desirability, more specifically, a stock's desirability? Isn't it the ability to generate profits? Yes, that's right, everybody wants high profits reinvested or dividends generated as passive income. If prices continue to go down, all the more better, because your dividend yields go higher.



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