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Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Discovery World Corporation IPO


The Discovery World Corporation is a resort and upscale real estate developer which owns the world class Discovery Shores Boracay, Discovery Country Suites in Tagaytay, and the Discovery Primea condominium in Ayala Ave, please read some of the articles and my comments below.

DISCLAIMER: The author does not guarantee the accuracy of the information, nor does this serve as a buying recommendation. The author is not a registered financial planner or business professional. The author is a fellow retail investor. Prospective investors should use their own discretion in their investments and if necessary should ask the assistance of an investment professional. Stock market investing is subject to internal and external risk factors that may result in substantial loss.



Please read about Mr. Mangun's (PSE Trader, US Stockbroker) insight on IPOs in this article published in the newspaper last week:




This is the official prospectus for prospective investors in the Discovery World common shares:

http://www.discovery.com.ph/files/Discovery-World-Corporation-Prospectus.pdf


Summary (important points): 

Offer shares: 168,000,000 shares with a par value of P1.00 being offered to the public for P3.28 per share.

These 168,000,000 shares represent 26.84% of the outstanding shares after the offer.
After the completion of the IPO, there will be 626,000,000 common shares outstanding.

The net proceeds from the offer will be used for:
[a] the acquisition of Discovery Fleet Corporation and Palawan Cove Corporation
[b] debt retirement
[c] working capital purposes

On July 22, 2013, the Board of Directors of the Company approved its dividend policy wherein it shall distribute to its shareholders as dividends at least 10% of company's net income for the previous fiscal year.

Sept. 27, 2013, the Company has acquired a 67% stake in Euro-Pacific Resorts Inc. which operates Club Paradise in Coron Palawan.



Summary of Financial Information
Revenues                         Net Income        Outstanding Shares     Earnings Per Share
[2010] P308,640,000        P38,030,000         626,000,000                 P0.06
[2011] P347,780,000        P62,640,000         626,000,000                 P0.10
[2012] P366,000,000        P21,220,000         626,000,000                 P0.03

P/E Ratio
[2010] 55
[2011] 33
[2012] 109

Equity [Book Value]   % increase in equity  Outstanding Shares  Book Value per Share
[2010] P422,870,000                                         626,000,000                       P0.676
[2011] P462,560,000                9.39%               626,000,000                       P0.74
[2012] P548,550,000              18.59%               626,000,000                       P0.88

[2013] P578,901,111*              5.53%                                                          P1.26
[2013] P1,095,356,917**        89.21%               626,000,000                       P1.75

*as of June 30, 2013 as stated in p.58 of the official prospectus
**pro-forma net-tangible book value after the IPO 
(increase in tangible assets reflecting the P516,455,806.9 proceeds from the sale of the stock in the IPO, and addition of 168,000,000 shares from the offer)

Price to Book Value
[2010] 4.85
[2011] 4.43
[2012] 3.73
[2013] 2.60*
[2013] 1.87**

For more information about book value / equity valuation, look here:
http://pilifinance.blogspot.com/2013/09/how-to-value-stocks-basic-ie-asset.html

"Dilution" p.58 from official prospectus

Here is the Capitalization Structure from the official prospectus:





COMMENTARY:

From an investment (in contrast to a trading) point of view, my opinion is that the price is too expensive for the value of the company judging from its owned properties, and net income.

The estimated P/E Ratio is above 100 for year 2012 after the shares have been added from the offer.

Remember that the offer price is P3.28 and the book value or equity or "net worth" is only P1.75, including the proceeds from the IPO. That is a premium of P1.53 above the tangible assets of the business.

This does not mean that the price will not go up once the company is listed in the exchange.

For me, the price is too high at the moment. But if you believe in the company's management, that they can successfully sustain and increase profits and expand the value of the business in the long run, you may buy this company. Or else you can just wait for a lower price in the market after the IPO.

Images from Skyscrapercity.com and discoveryprimea.com. credits to the owners.




For more information about stock investing, please visit my blog at: pilifinance.blogspot.com

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Use Interest Rates to Your Advantage: The Money Movement Strategy

While browsing for books in Book Sale, I came across a book by Charles J. Givens called "Wealth Without Risk"

What caught my attention was the page about the MONEY MOVEMENT STRATEGY:

I think all of us have an intuitive idea of how the prevailing interest rates in the economy affect our wealth and finances. All of us have heard about time deposit rates, how much interest is on your car, your home amortization, credit card and personal loans.

But interest rates can be used to your advantage too.

The MONEY MOVEMENT STRATEGY tells us that when general interest rates are: 

LOW - the economy is usually on a roll, invest in stocks or equities. The author, Mr. Givens, claims that the greatest bull markets in history have occurred on low interest rate environments. And this is not hard to believe since low interest in the economy stimulates people to buy products and take out loans. Profits roll in and there is much liquidity in the system for that can be used for expansion.

When interest rates are: 

HIGH - Invest in debt-instruments or bonds and money-market. In other words, lending your money when interest rates are high. This makes perfect sense, since this is the main principle in bond or debt investing. The higher interest rate coupons you have on your bond, the higher interest you receive from it. When prevailing interest rates go down, the value of your bond with a higher rate goes up because all the other bonds have lower rates. 

Money-market are bank the time-deposits and other highly liquid "cash equivalents". Invest in these when the interest rates are high.

According to the strategy you have to set a decision line for the interest rate. This is highly a personal or arbitrary choice.

The main interest rates in the Philippine economy that I watch out for are:

The BSP Policy Rates: Overnight Lending / Borrowing Rates

and the Bellwether Interest Rates

You may also check:

As we speak, interest rates are at record low levels, following a stable inflation rate and other factors such as the recent investment grade ratings upgrades in the first half  of this year 2013.




Sunday, September 22, 2013

Fundamental Stock Valuation: "CDC" Cityland Development Corporation

Disclaimer: Brand names, logos and sources of information are property of their respective owners.


Inset: "In God We Trust."  is inscribed in most of their buildings all over Metro Manila.

Corporate Name: Cityland Development Corporation
Nature of Business: Organized in January 31, 1978, publicly listed in March 1983. The Company's primary purpose is to acquire and develop suitable land sites for residential, office, commercial, institutional, and industrial uses.
Its projects include medium to high-rise office, commercial, and residential condominiums located in cities of Makati, Mandaluyong, Manila and Pasig; and residential subdivisions and farmlots in Bulacan and Cavite.

Book Value Figures:
Capitalization Structure:
Capitalization Structure
2012
2011
2010
Debt
1,839,294,867
1,566,460,772
1,949,712,998
*Market Value of Preferred Stock
-
-
-
*Market Value of Common Stock
3,790,631,449


Total Capitalization
5,629,926,316


* based on average price
*Market Value of Preferred/Common Stock non-retroactive
** update as of 4th quarter 2013, one billion four hundred million worth of commercial papers / bonds / debt have been registered by the company
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2013/pdf/dc2013-8427_CDC.pdf

Debt to Equity Ratio:
YEAR
DEBT
EQUITY
RATIO
PERCENTAGE
2012
1,839,294,867
4,920,844,343
0.37
37% debt
2011
1,566,460,772
4,601,113,985
0.34
34% debt
2010
1,949,712,998
4,276,898,289
0.46
46% debt

Common Stock:
Outstanding Shares: 3,401,848,735
END OF YEAR
OUTSTANDING SHARES
AVE. PRICE
2013
3,401,848,735

2012
3,239,855,939
1.17

Stockholders:
-Directors (24.15%)
-Officers (0.34%)
-Public (24.91%)
-Cityland, Inc. (50.42%)
-Cityplans, Inc. (0.06%)
-IITC as Trustee of Cityland Group Retirement Fund (0.13%)


Book Value Per Share (cash actually invested in the business):
YEAR
Book Value
Book Value Per Share (in Php)
Percentage Growth
2012
4,920,844,343
1.45
7%
2011
4,601,113,985
1.35
7%
2010
4,276,898,289
1.26

*Per Share data retroactive to stock dividends (Divide all previous Book Value figures by the latest year’s number of shares outstanding to adjust entire Per Share column.)
*Book Value attributable to the holders of the parent

Current-Asset Value/Liquidating Value Per Share (Cash, inventories, receivables net of total liabilities):
YEAR
Net Current-Asset Value
Net Current-Asset Value Per Share (in Php)
2012
3,465,501,016
1.02
2011
3,050,749,578
0.90
2010
2,708,937,495
0.80
*Including “Real Estate Properties for Sale” considered as inventory
*Per Share data retroactive to stock dividends (Divide all previous Net Current-Asset Value figures by the latest year’s number of shares outstanding to adjust entire Per Share column.)

Cash-Asset Value Per Share (Cash net of total liabilities):
YEAR
Net Cash-Asset Value
Net Cash-Asset Value Per Share (in Php)
2012
-323,590,733
-0.10
2011
-1,248,722,736
-0.37
2010
-2,396,592,445
-0.70
*Per Share data retroactive to stock dividends (Divide all previous Net Cash-Asset figures by the latest year’s number of shares outstanding to adjust entire Per Share column.)



Market Price Per Share (Average of previous year):
YEAR
Earned per share (as reported)
HIGH
LOW
AVERAGE
2012
0.12
1.36
0.97
1.17
2011
0.14
1.38
1.00
1.19
2010
0.14
1.88
0.75
1.32
* Per Share data retroactive to stock dividends
*Market prices take into account stock dividends for the previous years


Net Working Capital/Current Ratio (at least 2 current assets : 1  current liabilities):
YEAR
Current Ratio (assets for every liability)
REMARKS
2012
2.27
PASSED
2011
2.14
PASSED
2010
1.91
FAILED
>2 = passed
Acid Test (Current assets less inventories at least equal to current liabilities. ):
YEAR
ACID TEST
REMARKS
2012
1.73
PASSED
2011
1.54
PASSED
2010
1.35
PASSED
>1 = passed




Earnings Figures:
P/E ratio:
YEAR
AVE. PRICE
EPS
P/E
2012
1.17
0.12
9.75
2011
1.19
0.14
8.5
2010
1.32
0.14
9.43
* Per Share data retroactive to stock dividends
*Market prices take into account stock dividends for the year

Earnings per share:
YEAR
NET EARNINGS*
Earnings Per Share
2012
400,532,990
0.12
2011
441,337,900
0.14
2010
447,868,346
0.14
2009
513,099,506
0.16
*Per Share data retroactive to stock dividends (Divide all previous net earnings figures by the latest year’s number of shares outstanding to adjust entire EPS column.)
*Net Earnings attributable to holders of the parent

Earnings per share as a percentage of average market price (E/P):
YEAR
EPS
AVE. PRICE
Earnings as Percentage of Price
2012
0.12
1.17
10.26%
2011
0.14
1.19
11.76%
2010
0.14
1.32
10.60%
* Per Share data retroactive to stock dividends
*Market prices take into account stock dividends for the year

5-Year Average of Earnings per share:
5-Year low EPS:
5-Year high EPS:



Cash flow from operating activities:
YEAR
Cash flow from operating activities
Capital Expenditures
Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow Per Share
2012
691,262,168
6,331,288
684,930,880
0.20
2011
717,774,249
6,800,632
710,973,617
0.21
2010
839,916,810
2,136,562
837,780,248
0.25
*Capital Expenditures selected from “Cash flows from Investing Activities”
*Per share data retroactive to stock dividends (Divide all previous Free Cash Flow figures by latest year’s number of shares outstanding to adjust entire per share column.)

Sales as a Percentage of Inventories
YEAR
*INVENTORIES
*SALES
INVENTORY SALES
2012
1,470,772,832
1,421,385,193
96.6% sold
2011
1,591,546,671
1,574,293,008
98.9% sold
2010
1,669,928,812
1,454,122,153
87.1% sold
*Inventories for CDC are “Real Estate Properties for Sale” in the balance sheet
*Sales from “Sales of Real Estate Properties” from the Income Statement only

Net Profit Margin:
YEAR
REVENUES
NET INCOME
NET PROFIT MARGIN
2012
1,913,008,632
529,787,157
27.7%
2011
2,097,580,254
601,834,373
28.7%
2010
1,454,122,153
582,352,213
40.1%
2009
1,880,570,472
579,816,925
30.9%

Return on Equity:
YEAR
EQUITY
NET INCOME
RETURN ON EQUITY
2012
4,920,844,343
529,787,157
10.8%
2011
4,601,113,985
601,834,373
13%
2010
4,276,898,289
582,352,213
13.6%

Cash Dividends:
YEAR
EARNINGS PER SHARE
AVE. PRICE
DIVIDEND RATE
DIVIDEND YIELD*
DIVIDEND AS PERCENTAGE OF EARNINGS
DIVIDEND AS PERCENTAGE OF FREE CASHFLOW
2012
0.12
1.17
0.03
2.56% + 5% stock
25%
15%
2011
0.15
1.19
0.05
4.20% + 20% stock
33%
24%
2010
0.15
1.32
0.06
4.55% + 20% stock
40%
24%
*Dividend Yield based on average price
*Dividend yield and EPS non-retroactive to latest year’s number of shares outstanding. (no longer needs updating of entire EPS column)

QUARTERLY REPORTS
QUARTER             EQUITY (YTD)              REVENUES (Q)      NET INCOME (Q)     EPS (YTD) 
2013 Q3           P 5,188,446,343          P 377,922,964     P 105,154,649          P 0.104